HERDING RISK IN MONGOLIA

Summary of talk to TAA Scottish & Borders Branch by J. M. Suttie

This is a general introduction to Mongolia’s herding, and some of the risks inherent therein which will, I hope, serve to introduce David Hadrill’s talk on the emergency activities after losses due to hard winters and drought. A more detailed description is given in FAO’s Pasture Resource Profile series: (Suttie 2000).

Mongolia lies between 42⁰ and 52⁰ N with half its land above 1,400 meters and is

completely landlocked - there are few surfaced roads. Access to the sea is through Tianjin, 1,000 km from the frontier. The people are mainly Mongol but the far west has a Kazakh province (most came in the early twentieth century from what is now Kazakhstan) and there are a few reindeer-people in the far north. The national diet is based overwhelmingly on meat and dairy products. The population is 2,500,000, over half is urban; with at least 600, 000 in the capital. The standard of literacy is one of the highest in Asia; all herders have been to school, many to secondary level. The economy is almost entirely based on livestock, crop s are insignificant; there is no other industry to subsidise the rural population

The climate is arid to semi-arid extremely continental; precipitation in the main grazing areas is 200 - 300 mm, mainly falling in summer; most of the country has fewer than 100 frost-free days annually. The southern and western lower altitude zones have a longer frost-free period - in the Gobi. Winter temperatures are very low – minus 40 and there is often wind. Cold winds , snowstorms, dust storms and drought are regular hazards which can cause large stock losses. Much of the country is relatively flat steppe or desert, but there are great mountainous areas and big lake basins, especially in the north and west.

Livestock production system. Grazing is the only feed source – it is not possible to conserve forage for eight months from a ninety-day growing season; there are no local crop residues nor concentrate feed. Grazing systems are transhumant and designed, through mobility and travel, to make best use of available feed, water and shelter. Species and breeds used are local and well adapted. Introduced breeds failed unless given excessive care, winter housing and feeding. Multi-species herds are kept to spread risk and make full use of the available grazing; Mongolians refer to themselves as “People of the five animals” –(horses, cattle, camels, sheep and goats – yak count with cattle; fierce dogs do not count.)

Stock must be fat enough in autumn to survive winter and spring; herding skill is the main key to survival. Excess stock is sold or slaughtered and frozen, domestically or commercially, at the end of autumn. The country’s pastures have probably always been heavily stocked, hard grazing is a historical phenomenon, not something of recent development. Kharin et al (1999) quote Przevalsky (1883) who “said that all suitable agricultural lands were reclaimed and all grazing lands were overloaded by livestock.”

The system, based on unsupplemented grazing and local stock, is undoubtedly successful and sustainable, and has been for centuries, despite the problems of the past two winters. Although the pastures are hard grazed after three drought summers, degradation is only localised. Stock numbers are at an all-time high. This contrasts with what happened in many other countries which had collectivised livestock. Kyrgyzstan is a classic example where a system based on exotic stock, dependent on winter feed, collapsed as described by Anthony Fitzherbert in the FAO Pasture Profile (Fitzherbert 2000).

Policy changes over eighty years. Mongolia, as Outer Mongolia, was a province of the Manchu Qing Empire. On the break up of the Empire in 1911, by agreement between Russia and China, it gained independence. A period of civil war and invasion by White Russians during the Revolution followed. Mongolia became Communist in 1921 as the Mongolian Peoples’ Republic.

Up to 1920 land tenure was feudal and stock management transhumant with family groups as units. Under communism transhumant herding continued but the population was increasingly controlled. The livestock industry was collectivised (into 225 grazing co-operatives) in the early 50s - families kept their own subsistence stock (about 25% of total livestock units) Mobility was maintained but many state inputs, especially subsidised fodder and transport were made available. Marketing, and consumer goods were arranged by the state. In 1990 - 1992 the collective system broke down, livestock ownership was privatised precipitately but land tenure has not been resolved: livestock and land are under two different ministries. State interventions and services have been greatly reduced.

Livestock numbers. Mongolia has a long data set from 1918 and its reliability is good by local standards; numbers rose very rapidly once the communist state stabilised, and probably modern veterinary methods were put in place. Numbers peaked in the mid-forties – then fell dramatically after the great zud of 1947 which probably precipitated the creation of the 250 cooperatives. Zud is a term covering various types of weather-related disaster – associated with winter precipitation, usually too much or too little snow and/or very low temperature. Throughout the collective period they were kept more or less stable but rose rapidly after 1990. Despite the great losses during the two recent zuds, stock numbers are still well above the levels of collective times.

Population numbers have been rising steadily and the urban population exceeded the rural population by 1979 – although “urban” largely means the small villages which are the district centres.

Risk. Herding in a harsh and variable climate is inherently risky; herding skill and mobility help mitigate risk but it is always there. The collapse of the collective system shifted the herding risk from the state to individual households. Risks can be divided into two main categories. Individual risks strike individuals or households nearly randomly, such as individual illness, predation on livestock, accidental injury, old age, loss of a job, crime and banditry. Covariant risks strike most or all individuals or households in one area.: drought and zud are classic covariant risks, as are some animal disease epidemics, market failures, or widespread conflict. This distinction is important because many individual risks can be protected against within the community, often by customary self-help mechanisms.

Risk can also be used in the entrepreneurial sense and herders can gain greatly on their capital if their herding skills are adequate, and their luck holds.

Types of zud. Deep snow fall exceeds the normal range; covers feed - most serious after a dry summer; trace snow or lack of snow at all - no drinking water; extreme and continuous cold; strong snow storms continued more than 12 hours.

Drought is classified by season occurrence: late spring and early summer drought; summer drought. Herders argue that drought in late spring and early summer is most serious because it coincides with the new growth of pasture grass. In 1999 – 2000 there was a very serious zud with 3,000,000 stock lost; 2001 was the worst since 1945.

Livestock losses through drought and zud (head)
Years	Type of Disaster	Losses adult stock	Losses young stock
1944 45	Drought + zud	8,100,000	1,100,000
1954 – 55	Zud	1,900,000	300,000
1956 – 57	Zud	1,500,000	900,000
1967 – 68	Drought + zud	2,700,000	1,700,000
1976 – 77	Zud	2,000,000	1,600,000
1986 – 87	Zud	800,000	900,000
1993	Zud	1,600,000	1,200,000
1996 – 97	Zud	600,000	500,000
1999 – 00	Drought + zud	3,000,000	1,200,000
2000 - 01	Drought + zud	3,400,000	?

Problems since privatisation. There has been much migration from east and west to central Mongolia; from east because of breakdown of mechanised wells through lack of maintenance; from the west and northwest for access to goods, services and markets. Migration has led to localised overgrazing.

Pasture management has become anarchic; there is no protection against trespass - so no incentive to better management. Even if groups wanted to manage their pastures they have no redress against trespassers. There is quite a lot of retention of mature stock in herds - partly due to fear of inflation; partly due to lack of goods to buy or barter.

The main market for meat and wool was Russia; even old stock could be sold to the army. Now Russia can not afford to import much meat and there are no other obvious markets. Low quality wool is almost unsaleable; only cashmere earns some money.

Revenue collection is not effective so there are no funds for many essential services. There are poorer educational and medical facilities generally. The veterinary service was “privatised” or left to its own devices in 1998.

Social consequences. A large class of rural poor has arisen because breakdown of a large rural bureaucracy left many jobless; they received stock at the share-out when the cooperatives broke up but had inadequate herding skills. There have been projects to “restock” poor herding families by giving them stock on loan but these seem unsustainable unless the underlying faults in pasture management and grazing rights are rectified.

There is now widespread public manifestation of religion with opening or reopening of temples in most centres; most gers have Buddhist shrines in Mongol areas. There is intensification of Islamic observance in Kazakh west

Participation by women in decision-making has increased markedly: party committees were male-dominated; women do much of the family trading they are thought less likely to drink the proceeds!

The people are adapting to the new situation, but slowly. Family-based, transhumant subsistence herding has become a national life-style and those herders who have succeeded maintain long-distance, four, season systems. Some social groupings have begun to develop, but usually of only two or three households who share herding tasks. These are based on family ties, or a territorial unit or, in the desert, water points. Some task-sharing is developing between herders and urban people – such as looking after schoolchildren while herders may look after some stock for townspeople.

Domestic marketing and slaughter of stock has become the main way of supplying meat to the urban population and barter is common

Official reaction to zud. There were only two serious zuds from 1950 to 2000; weather data are not available but the safety systems of the cooperatives may account for a lot. A moderate zud in 1993 led to a lot of donor activity in “restocking” herders and first results were encouraging. The 1999 – 2000 zud showed the restocking is not a solution unless the underlying faults in the system are dealt with. The 1999-2000 zud attracted a lot of international, official and NGO, relief as did the worse 2000 – 2001 one. The government realised that relying on emergency aid was no solution and drafted a pastoral policy for emergencies in spring 2001

Provincial responsibilities. Improve herders’ control over use of pastures. Create aimag emergency fodder funds in 2001, to provide reserves to support the aimag herd for at least three days. Recommend to herders a design for winter shelters from with local materials to suit climatic conditions. Demarcate and estimate carrying capacity of inter-aimag and inter-sum otor areas and protect such areas from unauthorised grazing;

Develop cooperation between aimag administrations concerning migration and otor. develop a general pasture water supply improvement plan. Implement a special programme to disseminate and demonstrate the experience and skills of senior herders concerning protection of livestock from natural. Ensure preparedness of means of transport, fuel, drugs,

District tasks. Create a district emergency fodder fund which will provide reserves to feed the entire herd for not less than three days. Certify herders’ possession rights over pastures and their seasonal use and set up schedules for use of winter and spring camp-site areas. Estimate current carrying capacity of district pastures in august, develop a general plan for livestock over-wintering. Rodent control, haymaking and fodder preparation shall be carried out as unofficial military service. Implement planned activities for hay and pasture irrigation through snow and rain water harvesting. Set up small fodder making units and organise measures to supply essential raw materials through public initiatives

Herders’ tasks. Control seasonal pasture use. Prevent out-of seasonal grazing of winter and spring pastures. Avoid grazing pressure which exceeds the carrying capacity. Livestock owners to ensure maximum fatness of animals and enhanced winter preparedness. Repair and maintain wells, water points and shelters in a timely manner. Prepare hay with a target of having available a household winter feed reserve. Use all locally available resources to prepare more minerals and other feedstuffs.

Will the plan succeed? The official plans look reasonable but have yet to be tried and there are problems. The emphasis on hay is poorly founded. Few districts have much hay land, the maps are a quarter of a century old. Hay is not, in any case an emergency feed, however useful it may be as part of routine feeding; such a low-quality feed is very expensive to transport over long distances and is not ideal for feeding to weak stock. Hay is not suitable for long-term storage, nor can production be stepped up, especially once a drought sets in.

Most of the interventions depend on grazing rights being allocated to herders and some means of protection from trespass – otherwise they will not invest in repair of infrastructure nor in better management. The legal, logistic and political problems connected with allocating rights are complex. The old system only had to deal with 250 cooperatives, each with its technical staff. There is no extension organisation in place to deal with thousands of individual households

Fitzherbert, A. R. 2000 Pastoral resource profile for Kyrgyzstan http://www.fao.org /WAICENT/FAOINFO/AGRICULT/AGP/AGPC/doc/Counprof/kyrgi.htm

Kharin, Nikolia, Ryaturo Takahashi and Hissein Harahshesh, (1999) Degradation of the drylands of Central Asia. Japan, Center for Remote Sensing (CEReS), Chiba University.

Przevalsky, N. M. 1883 The third expedition in Central Asia Sankt-Petersburg. Quoted by Kharin et al 1999 p. 56

Suttie, J. M. 2000b Pastoral resource profile for Mongolia http://www.fao.org /WAICENT/FAOINFO/AGRICULT/AGP/AGPC/doc/Counprof/mongo/l1.htm